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The euro has remained above parity with the U.S. dollar since September 2022, but rising tensions with Russia and potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump could threaten this stability. Economists predict the euro may return to parity by 2025, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and global trade uncertainties. The outlook remains volatile, with factors such as tariffs and economic responses from Europe and China playing crucial roles in the euro"s future trajectory.
Nvidia"s share price has dipped below a key ascending channel, with support at $146.78 and potential declines towards $120, while strong earnings could push it back above $150. Gold has experienced an 8% pullback amid a stronger US dollar, but geopolitical tensions may renew its appeal as a safe haven, with critical support at $2600. The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, raising concerns of intervention by the Bank of Japan, especially if the USD/JPY approaches 157-158, while a drop below 153 could indicate a reversal.
Euro-yen is gaining attention as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pursue diverging monetary policies, creating potential trading opportunities. Analysts from Rabobank, Nomura Securities, and Mizuho Securities predict the euro-yen could fall to between 140 and 150 by the end of next year, a level not seen since June 2023, while it currently stands around 164.
The U.S. dollar fell to a one-week low against major currencies, continuing a three-day decline after a brief rally post-Trump"s election. This drop followed comments from Russia"s foreign minister about avoiding nuclear conflict, which dampened the dollar"s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged to a record high above $94,000, buoyed by expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under the new administration.
Japan recorded a trade deficit of 461 billion yen ($3 billion) in October, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative trade balance. While exports rose by 3.1% due to increased shipments of semiconductor production equipment, imports grew by 0.4%, driven by high energy prices and a weak yen. Concerns over slowing global demand and potential trade tensions following the reelection of Donald Trump add to the uncertainty surrounding Japan"s economic outlook.
Shares of Seven & i surged nearly 11% following reports that its founding family is raising over $50 billion to take the company private by March 2025. The funds will be sourced from major Japanese and American financial institutions for a tender offer. This potential acquisition could mark the largest buyout of a Japanese company to date.
Kadokawa"s shares surged 16% following reports of Sony"s interest in acquiring the company, which is known for its influence in publishing, anime, and gaming, including the developer of "Elden Ring," FromSoftware. The stock closed up 23% at its daily limit, reflecting the growing significance of anime and manga in the global market, projected to reach $60 billion by 2030. Industry expert Serkan Toto noted that Sony recognizes the global impact of anime and manga.
Shares of Seven & i Holdings Co. surged by up to 11% in early Tokyo trading following reports that the Ito family aims to finalize a deal to take the company private by the end of its fiscal year in February. A special-purpose company formed by the family and other stakeholders is planning a takeover bid, seeking to raise over ¥8 trillion ($51.7 billion) from major banks and U.S. financial institutions.
Japan"s exports rose 3.1% in October, rebounding from a 43-month low, surpassing economists" expectations of a 2.2% increase. The most significant growth was seen in exports to the Middle East, which surged by 35.4%. However, the trade deficit widened to 461.2 billion yen, exceeding forecasts.
Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher, with Japan"s Nikkei 225 and Topix showing slight gains ahead of key trade data. Economists expect Japan"s exports to rise 2.2% year over year, while imports may drop 0.3%. In China, the benchmark lending rates are anticipated to remain unchanged after recent cuts. Geopolitical tensions are influencing market sentiment, particularly following warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding nuclear thresholds, which coincided with reports of Ukraine striking the Russian border.
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